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Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
 Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
According to BHP, the gCNewc 6000 kcal/kg FOB Newcastle index (hereafter 6000kcal) averaged around $61/t over the half, down from around $68/t in the first half of financial 2020. Prices ranged from a high of around $74/t to a low of around $50/t. That is below the 2015/16 trough in real terms. Based on the Wood Mackenzie operating cost curve, more than half of seaborne supply (comprising all grades of energy coal) was likely experiencing negative margins with 6000kcal prices in the low $50s.
The 5500kcal index averaged around $49/t over the same period, with a high of around $58/t and a low of around $38/t, which was where it closed out the half year.
BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook further noted that, the spread between the spot indexes for gCNewc 6000kcal and 5500kcal reverted to historical average of close to 20 per cent in the second half of financial year 2020, down from around 30 per cent in the 2019 calendar year.
“While not directly relevant to our business, there was a compression of spreads between the lower grades of energy coal (the 5000, 4200 and 3400 gross–as–received29 kcal brackets) as prices traded deep into the cost curve. Supply has been “sticky” in most export jurisdictions, with the exception of Indonesia, where output has been materially lower. Indonesian supply is prominent in these lower quality brackets” says BHP. Developed Asian markets, who are the largest buyers of >5500kcal product, have been weak under the shadow of COVID–19. Japanese imports contracted by –3 per cent YoY in the first half of the 2020 calendar year, while power demand was down -4 per cent YoY, South Korean imports contracted by –11% per cent.
Chinese demand for seaborne energy coal according to BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20, rebounded as lockdowns were lifted, with consumption of coal at coastal power plants back in the normal seasonal range by April 2020. Hydro generation has been inconsistent, along with the weather, with dry conditions early in the year then giving way to floods. The market consensus has been that the 271–281 Mt import inflow registered in calendar years 2017 and 2018 would serve as an informal objective for total coal imports (including metallurgical and lignite) in calendar 2020, rather than assuming that the jump to around 300Mt in 2019 was the new norm. Enforcement of quotas by month and by port, including clamping down on the practice of trading firms clearing customs at one port but discharging at another, have been somewhat effective. Even so, with so much product being forced to clear to China under the Great Lockdown, some provinces and individual ports had already exhausted full year quotas by May.
India saw a sharp decline in energy coal imports in January – June 2020 (–27 per cent YoY). Power demand declined by –7 per cent YoY in the same period, while domestic coal output was quite resilient, at –3 per cent YoY.
Demand from the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions was weak in advance of COVID–19 and lockdowns have deepened the malaise. In calendar 2019, the weakness reflected commercially driven coal–to–gas switching in parts of Europe, where relatively cheap pipeline gas and LNG imports, plus a steep rise in the price of European Carbon Allowances (ECAs)30, have driven generator behaviour. In calendar 2020 to date, all of these factors have remained in place and in some instances they have been amplified by COVID–19: and demand for power itself has now fallen sharply. Renewables have been able to take a larger share of that shrinking pie BHP concluded in its latest Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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