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Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
 Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
According to BHP, the gCNewc 6000 kcal/kg FOB Newcastle index (hereafter 6000kcal) averaged around $61/t over the half, down from around $68/t in the first half of financial 2020. Prices ranged from a high of around $74/t to a low of around $50/t. That is below the 2015/16 trough in real terms. Based on the Wood Mackenzie operating cost curve, more than half of seaborne supply (comprising all grades of energy coal) was likely experiencing negative margins with 6000kcal prices in the low $50s.
The 5500kcal index averaged around $49/t over the same period, with a high of around $58/t and a low of around $38/t, which was where it closed out the half year.
BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook further noted that, the spread between the spot indexes for gCNewc 6000kcal and 5500kcal reverted to historical average of close to 20 per cent in the second half of financial year 2020, down from around 30 per cent in the 2019 calendar year.
“While not directly relevant to our business, there was a compression of spreads between the lower grades of energy coal (the 5000, 4200 and 3400 gross–as–received29 kcal brackets) as prices traded deep into the cost curve. Supply has been “sticky” in most export jurisdictions, with the exception of Indonesia, where output has been materially lower. Indonesian supply is prominent in these lower quality brackets” says BHP. Developed Asian markets, who are the largest buyers of >5500kcal product, have been weak under the shadow of COVID–19. Japanese imports contracted by –3 per cent YoY in the first half of the 2020 calendar year, while power demand was down -4 per cent YoY, South Korean imports contracted by –11% per cent.
Chinese demand for seaborne energy coal according to BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20, rebounded as lockdowns were lifted, with consumption of coal at coastal power plants back in the normal seasonal range by April 2020. Hydro generation has been inconsistent, along with the weather, with dry conditions early in the year then giving way to floods. The market consensus has been that the 271–281 Mt import inflow registered in calendar years 2017 and 2018 would serve as an informal objective for total coal imports (including metallurgical and lignite) in calendar 2020, rather than assuming that the jump to around 300Mt in 2019 was the new norm. Enforcement of quotas by month and by port, including clamping down on the practice of trading firms clearing customs at one port but discharging at another, have been somewhat effective. Even so, with so much product being forced to clear to China under the Great Lockdown, some provinces and individual ports had already exhausted full year quotas by May.
India saw a sharp decline in energy coal imports in January – June 2020 (–27 per cent YoY). Power demand declined by –7 per cent YoY in the same period, while domestic coal output was quite resilient, at –3 per cent YoY.
Demand from the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions was weak in advance of COVID–19 and lockdowns have deepened the malaise. In calendar 2019, the weakness reflected commercially driven coal–to–gas switching in parts of Europe, where relatively cheap pipeline gas and LNG imports, plus a steep rise in the price of European Carbon Allowances (ECAs)30, have driven generator behaviour. In calendar 2020 to date, all of these factors have remained in place and in some instances they have been amplified by COVID–19: and demand for power itself has now fallen sharply. Renewables have been able to take a larger share of that shrinking pie BHP concluded in its latest Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
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Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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