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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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