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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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