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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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