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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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