We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
|
|
|
Showing 911 to 915 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
