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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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