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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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