We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
|
|
|
Showing 896 to 900 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
