We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
|
|
|
Showing 886 to 890 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
