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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in the first quarter of 2020, down 6.8%year-on-year. The power sector’s coal consumption fell 6.8%year-on-yearto 507mt,while construction sector usage fell 24.7% year-on-year to 65mt. Although the coal market remains volatile, industry observers estimate an average decline of 8% to 12% year-on-year in China’s coal demand. IEEFA currently estimates a 10% year-on-year fall in China’s 2020 coal imports, based on the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: From January to April2020,imports rose 27%year-on-year, but we note this is a function of lower prices.
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Domestic coal production: After declining year-on-year in January and February, output in March and April rose 6.4%and 6.0%year-on-year, respectively.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation declined 8.2%year-on-yearin the first quarter but rose 1.5%year-on-yearin April.
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Steel output: This increased 1.3%year-on-yearfor the first four months of 2020.
A detailed examination of China’s data, together with press commentary on the Chinese Government’s policy on coal imports, reinforces our view that caution is merited. According to media reports, China’s coal imports grew 22% year-on-year in April, and January to April 2020 imports increased 27% year-on-year, but the growth was boosted by lower prices for coal imports from Indonesia and Australia. The average April Newcastle benchmark price of US$56.2/tonne is 35% lower year-on-year.
According to media reports, China’s coal production experienced year-on-year growth of 6.4% in March and 6.0% in April. This growth is unsurprising as the National Energy Administration announced that China’s production had reached 83.4% of total coal mining capacity as of 3 March. The COVID-19-related disruption to China’s domestic coal output appears limited to January–February2020,when output declined 4.8%year-on-year, which is bad news for coal exporters to China. Additionally, 12 Chinese coal companies have called for a 10% cut in output from current levels to support domestic prices. The year-on-year growth in China’s domestic coal production would also tie in with government policy to impose an import quota this year that is set at 2017 levels, which are 10% below 2019 levels.
From January to April 2020, total Chinese power output fell 4.7% year-on-year, while thermal power output fell 5.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output grew 2.0% year-on-year, and thermal power output was up 1.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2020, 87 % of China’s thermal power capacity was from coal-fired plants, with the remainder from gas-fired facilities, according to the China Electricity Council. We note that even with the slight uptick in thermal power output for April, it is too early to suggest a sustained recovery in coal usage and imports.
China’s steel output serves as an indicator of economic activity. It rose1.3%year-on-yearfor January to April2020, indicating some stability. According to Mysteel Global, blast furnace capacity utilization rates at 163 mills rose to 85.6%, the highest rate in nearly 11 months, as of 15 May. However, against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production, this level of economic activity would still present downside risks for Chinese coal imports.
The outlook on government policy remains negative for exports to China, thanks to the coal import quota that seeks to maintain 2020 coal imports at the 2017 level of 270mt compared with 300mt in 2019. However, according to media reports, Guangdong and Fujian provinces used up the quota in the first four months of 2020. One positive sign for Indonesia’s exporters is the suggestion in media reports that China may reduce coal imports from Australia from July because of political tensions. Meanwhile, China’s coal producers have also been calling for government help. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (the state-run representative body for domestic miners) has asked the National Development and Reform Commission to help restrict imports of cheap fuel. Additionally, 12Chinese coal producers have called for a 10% reduction in domestic coal output. Industry observers have estimated a year-on-year decline of 8–12%for China coal imports. This is in line with IEEFA’s conclusion that Chinese coal imports could decline 10%year-on-yearin 2020.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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