We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in the first quarter of 2020, down 6.8%year-on-year. The power sector’s coal consumption fell 6.8%year-on-yearto 507mt,while construction sector usage fell 24.7% year-on-year to 65mt. Although the coal market remains volatile, industry observers estimate an average decline of 8% to 12% year-on-year in China’s coal demand. IEEFA currently estimates a 10% year-on-year fall in China’s 2020 coal imports, based on the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: From January to April2020,imports rose 27%year-on-year, but we note this is a function of lower prices.
-
Domestic coal production: After declining year-on-year in January and February, output in March and April rose 6.4%and 6.0%year-on-year, respectively.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation declined 8.2%year-on-yearin the first quarter but rose 1.5%year-on-yearin April.
-
Steel output: This increased 1.3%year-on-yearfor the first four months of 2020.
A detailed examination of China’s data, together with press commentary on the Chinese Government’s policy on coal imports, reinforces our view that caution is merited. According to media reports, China’s coal imports grew 22% year-on-year in April, and January to April 2020 imports increased 27% year-on-year, but the growth was boosted by lower prices for coal imports from Indonesia and Australia. The average April Newcastle benchmark price of US$56.2/tonne is 35% lower year-on-year.
According to media reports, China’s coal production experienced year-on-year growth of 6.4% in March and 6.0% in April. This growth is unsurprising as the National Energy Administration announced that China’s production had reached 83.4% of total coal mining capacity as of 3 March. The COVID-19-related disruption to China’s domestic coal output appears limited to January–February2020,when output declined 4.8%year-on-year, which is bad news for coal exporters to China. Additionally, 12 Chinese coal companies have called for a 10% cut in output from current levels to support domestic prices. The year-on-year growth in China’s domestic coal production would also tie in with government policy to impose an import quota this year that is set at 2017 levels, which are 10% below 2019 levels.
From January to April 2020, total Chinese power output fell 4.7% year-on-year, while thermal power output fell 5.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output grew 2.0% year-on-year, and thermal power output was up 1.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2020, 87 % of China’s thermal power capacity was from coal-fired plants, with the remainder from gas-fired facilities, according to the China Electricity Council. We note that even with the slight uptick in thermal power output for April, it is too early to suggest a sustained recovery in coal usage and imports.
China’s steel output serves as an indicator of economic activity. It rose1.3%year-on-yearfor January to April2020, indicating some stability. According to Mysteel Global, blast furnace capacity utilization rates at 163 mills rose to 85.6%, the highest rate in nearly 11 months, as of 15 May. However, against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production, this level of economic activity would still present downside risks for Chinese coal imports.
The outlook on government policy remains negative for exports to China, thanks to the coal import quota that seeks to maintain 2020 coal imports at the 2017 level of 270mt compared with 300mt in 2019. However, according to media reports, Guangdong and Fujian provinces used up the quota in the first four months of 2020. One positive sign for Indonesia’s exporters is the suggestion in media reports that China may reduce coal imports from Australia from July because of political tensions. Meanwhile, China’s coal producers have also been calling for government help. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (the state-run representative body for domestic miners) has asked the National Development and Reform Commission to help restrict imports of cheap fuel. Additionally, 12Chinese coal producers have called for a 10% reduction in domestic coal output. Industry observers have estimated a year-on-year decline of 8–12%for China coal imports. This is in line with IEEFA’s conclusion that Chinese coal imports could decline 10%year-on-yearin 2020.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
|
|
|
Showing 896 to 900 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
|
| |
| |
|
.png)
.png)
(1).png)
(1).png)
