We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in the first quarter of 2020, down 6.8%year-on-year. The power sector’s coal consumption fell 6.8%year-on-yearto 507mt,while construction sector usage fell 24.7% year-on-year to 65mt. Although the coal market remains volatile, industry observers estimate an average decline of 8% to 12% year-on-year in China’s coal demand. IEEFA currently estimates a 10% year-on-year fall in China’s 2020 coal imports, based on the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: From January to April2020,imports rose 27%year-on-year, but we note this is a function of lower prices.
-
Domestic coal production: After declining year-on-year in January and February, output in March and April rose 6.4%and 6.0%year-on-year, respectively.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation declined 8.2%year-on-yearin the first quarter but rose 1.5%year-on-yearin April.
-
Steel output: This increased 1.3%year-on-yearfor the first four months of 2020.
A detailed examination of China’s data, together with press commentary on the Chinese Government’s policy on coal imports, reinforces our view that caution is merited. According to media reports, China’s coal imports grew 22% year-on-year in April, and January to April 2020 imports increased 27% year-on-year, but the growth was boosted by lower prices for coal imports from Indonesia and Australia. The average April Newcastle benchmark price of US$56.2/tonne is 35% lower year-on-year.
According to media reports, China’s coal production experienced year-on-year growth of 6.4% in March and 6.0% in April. This growth is unsurprising as the National Energy Administration announced that China’s production had reached 83.4% of total coal mining capacity as of 3 March. The COVID-19-related disruption to China’s domestic coal output appears limited to January–February2020,when output declined 4.8%year-on-year, which is bad news for coal exporters to China. Additionally, 12 Chinese coal companies have called for a 10% cut in output from current levels to support domestic prices. The year-on-year growth in China’s domestic coal production would also tie in with government policy to impose an import quota this year that is set at 2017 levels, which are 10% below 2019 levels.
From January to April 2020, total Chinese power output fell 4.7% year-on-year, while thermal power output fell 5.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output grew 2.0% year-on-year, and thermal power output was up 1.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2020, 87 % of China’s thermal power capacity was from coal-fired plants, with the remainder from gas-fired facilities, according to the China Electricity Council. We note that even with the slight uptick in thermal power output for April, it is too early to suggest a sustained recovery in coal usage and imports.
China’s steel output serves as an indicator of economic activity. It rose1.3%year-on-yearfor January to April2020, indicating some stability. According to Mysteel Global, blast furnace capacity utilization rates at 163 mills rose to 85.6%, the highest rate in nearly 11 months, as of 15 May. However, against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production, this level of economic activity would still present downside risks for Chinese coal imports.
The outlook on government policy remains negative for exports to China, thanks to the coal import quota that seeks to maintain 2020 coal imports at the 2017 level of 270mt compared with 300mt in 2019. However, according to media reports, Guangdong and Fujian provinces used up the quota in the first four months of 2020. One positive sign for Indonesia’s exporters is the suggestion in media reports that China may reduce coal imports from Australia from July because of political tensions. Meanwhile, China’s coal producers have also been calling for government help. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (the state-run representative body for domestic miners) has asked the National Development and Reform Commission to help restrict imports of cheap fuel. Additionally, 12Chinese coal producers have called for a 10% reduction in domestic coal output. Industry observers have estimated a year-on-year decline of 8–12%for China coal imports. This is in line with IEEFA’s conclusion that Chinese coal imports could decline 10%year-on-yearin 2020.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
|
|
|
Showing 911 to 915 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
.png)
.png)
(1).png)
(1).png)
