We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in the first quarter of 2020, down 6.8%year-on-year. The power sector’s coal consumption fell 6.8%year-on-yearto 507mt,while construction sector usage fell 24.7% year-on-year to 65mt. Although the coal market remains volatile, industry observers estimate an average decline of 8% to 12% year-on-year in China’s coal demand. IEEFA currently estimates a 10% year-on-year fall in China’s 2020 coal imports, based on the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: From January to April2020,imports rose 27%year-on-year, but we note this is a function of lower prices.
-
Domestic coal production: After declining year-on-year in January and February, output in March and April rose 6.4%and 6.0%year-on-year, respectively.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation declined 8.2%year-on-yearin the first quarter but rose 1.5%year-on-yearin April.
-
Steel output: This increased 1.3%year-on-yearfor the first four months of 2020.
A detailed examination of China’s data, together with press commentary on the Chinese Government’s policy on coal imports, reinforces our view that caution is merited. According to media reports, China’s coal imports grew 22% year-on-year in April, and January to April 2020 imports increased 27% year-on-year, but the growth was boosted by lower prices for coal imports from Indonesia and Australia. The average April Newcastle benchmark price of US$56.2/tonne is 35% lower year-on-year.
According to media reports, China’s coal production experienced year-on-year growth of 6.4% in March and 6.0% in April. This growth is unsurprising as the National Energy Administration announced that China’s production had reached 83.4% of total coal mining capacity as of 3 March. The COVID-19-related disruption to China’s domestic coal output appears limited to January–February2020,when output declined 4.8%year-on-year, which is bad news for coal exporters to China. Additionally, 12 Chinese coal companies have called for a 10% cut in output from current levels to support domestic prices. The year-on-year growth in China’s domestic coal production would also tie in with government policy to impose an import quota this year that is set at 2017 levels, which are 10% below 2019 levels.
From January to April 2020, total Chinese power output fell 4.7% year-on-year, while thermal power output fell 5.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output grew 2.0% year-on-year, and thermal power output was up 1.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2020, 87 % of China’s thermal power capacity was from coal-fired plants, with the remainder from gas-fired facilities, according to the China Electricity Council. We note that even with the slight uptick in thermal power output for April, it is too early to suggest a sustained recovery in coal usage and imports.
China’s steel output serves as an indicator of economic activity. It rose1.3%year-on-yearfor January to April2020, indicating some stability. According to Mysteel Global, blast furnace capacity utilization rates at 163 mills rose to 85.6%, the highest rate in nearly 11 months, as of 15 May. However, against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production, this level of economic activity would still present downside risks for Chinese coal imports.
The outlook on government policy remains negative for exports to China, thanks to the coal import quota that seeks to maintain 2020 coal imports at the 2017 level of 270mt compared with 300mt in 2019. However, according to media reports, Guangdong and Fujian provinces used up the quota in the first four months of 2020. One positive sign for Indonesia’s exporters is the suggestion in media reports that China may reduce coal imports from Australia from July because of political tensions. Meanwhile, China’s coal producers have also been calling for government help. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (the state-run representative body for domestic miners) has asked the National Development and Reform Commission to help restrict imports of cheap fuel. Additionally, 12Chinese coal producers have called for a 10% reduction in domestic coal output. Industry observers have estimated a year-on-year decline of 8–12%for China coal imports. This is in line with IEEFA’s conclusion that Chinese coal imports could decline 10%year-on-yearin 2020.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
|
|
|
Showing 891 to 895 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
|
| |
| |
|
.png)
.png)
(1).png)
(1).png)
