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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in the first quarter of 2020, down 6.8%year-on-year. The power sector’s coal consumption fell 6.8%year-on-yearto 507mt,while construction sector usage fell 24.7% year-on-year to 65mt. Although the coal market remains volatile, industry observers estimate an average decline of 8% to 12% year-on-year in China’s coal demand. IEEFA currently estimates a 10% year-on-year fall in China’s 2020 coal imports, based on the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: From January to April2020,imports rose 27%year-on-year, but we note this is a function of lower prices.
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Domestic coal production: After declining year-on-year in January and February, output in March and April rose 6.4%and 6.0%year-on-year, respectively.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation declined 8.2%year-on-yearin the first quarter but rose 1.5%year-on-yearin April.
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Steel output: This increased 1.3%year-on-yearfor the first four months of 2020.
A detailed examination of China’s data, together with press commentary on the Chinese Government’s policy on coal imports, reinforces our view that caution is merited. According to media reports, China’s coal imports grew 22% year-on-year in April, and January to April 2020 imports increased 27% year-on-year, but the growth was boosted by lower prices for coal imports from Indonesia and Australia. The average April Newcastle benchmark price of US$56.2/tonne is 35% lower year-on-year.
According to media reports, China’s coal production experienced year-on-year growth of 6.4% in March and 6.0% in April. This growth is unsurprising as the National Energy Administration announced that China’s production had reached 83.4% of total coal mining capacity as of 3 March. The COVID-19-related disruption to China’s domestic coal output appears limited to January–February2020,when output declined 4.8%year-on-year, which is bad news for coal exporters to China. Additionally, 12 Chinese coal companies have called for a 10% cut in output from current levels to support domestic prices. The year-on-year growth in China’s domestic coal production would also tie in with government policy to impose an import quota this year that is set at 2017 levels, which are 10% below 2019 levels.
From January to April 2020, total Chinese power output fell 4.7% year-on-year, while thermal power output fell 5.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output grew 2.0% year-on-year, and thermal power output was up 1.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2020, 87 % of China’s thermal power capacity was from coal-fired plants, with the remainder from gas-fired facilities, according to the China Electricity Council. We note that even with the slight uptick in thermal power output for April, it is too early to suggest a sustained recovery in coal usage and imports.
China’s steel output serves as an indicator of economic activity. It rose1.3%year-on-yearfor January to April2020, indicating some stability. According to Mysteel Global, blast furnace capacity utilization rates at 163 mills rose to 85.6%, the highest rate in nearly 11 months, as of 15 May. However, against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production, this level of economic activity would still present downside risks for Chinese coal imports.
The outlook on government policy remains negative for exports to China, thanks to the coal import quota that seeks to maintain 2020 coal imports at the 2017 level of 270mt compared with 300mt in 2019. However, according to media reports, Guangdong and Fujian provinces used up the quota in the first four months of 2020. One positive sign for Indonesia’s exporters is the suggestion in media reports that China may reduce coal imports from Australia from July because of political tensions. Meanwhile, China’s coal producers have also been calling for government help. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (the state-run representative body for domestic miners) has asked the National Development and Reform Commission to help restrict imports of cheap fuel. Additionally, 12Chinese coal producers have called for a 10% reduction in domestic coal output. Industry observers have estimated a year-on-year decline of 8–12%for China coal imports. This is in line with IEEFA’s conclusion that Chinese coal imports could decline 10%year-on-yearin 2020.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Tuesday, 07 July 20
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Monday, 06 July 20
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Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
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Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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