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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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