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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
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Showing 951 to 955 news of total 6871 |
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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