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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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