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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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