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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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