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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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