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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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