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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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