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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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