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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed pr ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
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Showing 361 to 365 news of total 6871 |
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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