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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
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Showing 366 to 370 news of total 6871 |
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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