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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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