We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
|
|
|
Showing 346 to 350 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
|
| |
| |
|
