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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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