We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
|
|
|
Showing 331 to 335 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
