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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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