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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 18 January 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 4.51 pct week on week on Friday 16, January 2015. The BDI closed at 741 points on this Friday after gaining arou ...
Friday, 16 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.3% W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUE ON LOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
On a general basis we can say that rates are softening in both hemispheres. Although for some specific trades we can see premiums being ach ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
LOW CASH COSTS, GOOD LIQUIDITY HELP ASIAN OIL COMPANIES IN PRICE ROUT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that rated oil and gas production companies in Asia can comfortably operate under low oil prices for some time given their gener ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
DRY BULK MARKET NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY DECLINE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry bulk market noted another weekly decline on Friday, with the performance of the Capesize market still weighing down on the re ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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