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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 01 March 15
BDI INDEX SLIGHTLY UP CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE PANAMAX, SUPARAMAX AND HANDY SIZE INDICES
COALspot.com: The freight market saw some gains this week and BDI was up 5.26 pct closed at 540 points. However the Cape index failed to follow BDI ...
Friday, 27 February 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AN ESTIMATED 14.0% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 16.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET COULD REBOUND FROM HISTORICAL LOWS IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market could exit from its historical lows in the coming weeks, as Chinese buyers reenter the market after the holiday celebrations. T ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
COAL POLICY RISK: HIGHER ROYALTIES FOR IUP HOLDERS - BAHANA SECURITIES | JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry plans to raise coal royalties charged to mining operation permit (IUP) holders by the end of the first qu ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR POSITIVE MOMENTUM, BUT PROSPECTS REMAIN DIM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) inched a bit higher over the past couple of sessions and the Chinese are returning to the market after a week long hi ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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