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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 25 February 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.16MT OF COAL IN JANUARY; DECLINED 16.70% FROM A MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.15 billio ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
BDI SLIPPING ONCE MORE TO FRESH HISTORICAL LOWS
COALspot.com: With the BDI slipping once more to fresh historical lows and the Chinese holidays underway, signs for a positive reversal in the Dry ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SET TO RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 3.30 (+7.30%) ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
Q3' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED $59.80 W/E 20 FEB
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and decline week on week.
The Q2 swap has soar ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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