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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 05 March 15
BUKIT ASAM BOOKED US$ 1 BILLION REVENUE IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state owned coal miner PT. Bukit Asam, has announced that, the revenue of the company for the period J ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
AN AGENDA FOR CHANGE - FITCH INDONESIA CONFERENCE
Fitch Indonesia Conference - 5 March 2015
Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference on 5 March 2015.
The theme of this year ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME TO DECLINE 50% BY 2019
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government is planning to reduce coal export volume by 50% within the next five years while keeping its coal productio ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS: STEAMING FORWARD - CLARKSONS
Coal-fired power stations comprise around 60% of India’s power output, and with domestic supply issues and favourable international coal pric ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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