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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
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Showing 306 to 310 news of total 6871 |
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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