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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
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Showing 301 to 305 news of total 6871 |
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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