We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
|
|
|
Showing 296 to 300 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
|
| |
| |
|
