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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE PLAYS EXPECTED TO SHAPE UP MAY DRY BULK SCHEDULE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Market plays in the iron ore commodities’ markets, are expected to carve out the future demand for the shipping industry as well, said Allied ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The figures of China’s slowing down imports of coking coal for the first quarter of the year are coming to confirm what everybody was expecti ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
SHIPBUILDERS START OFFERING DISCOUNTS FOR DRY BULK NEWBUILDINGS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It took a while, but now it appears that some shipbuilders are beginning to adjust their price lists to the new grim reality of the dry bulk market ...
Tuesday, 28 April 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED M-O-M; INCREASED W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week but declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 0.15 ( ...
Tuesday, 28 April 15
Q2' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.18% HIGHER FROM MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased month over month and slightly week over week.
The Q2 swap ha ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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