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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 24 April 15
IS INDIA THE 'NEW CHINA' WHEN IT COMES TO THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been feeling the “heat” of China’s slowdown and together with the industry’s own failings, with ove ...
Friday, 24 April 15
GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION OUTSIDE OF CHINA CONTINUES TO FARE VERY POORLY - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Data released this week showed that global crude steel production totaled approximately 138.05 million tons in March.
Wha ...
Friday, 24 April 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE FALLS 5.7% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.0 million short ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
PANAMAX : ATLANTIC HOLDING ON TO THE GAINS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK; PACIFIC BUSINESS SLID QUIETLY
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to close off the week on a positive note last Friday, while as opposed to what we have been used to, it w ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD c ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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