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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 06 May 15
COMBINATION OF HOLIDAYS AND A SHAKY MARKET PUT ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON RATES
COALspot.com: The combination of holidays and a shaky market is always a recipe for additional pressure on rates and last week was no exception. Wi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
The first four months of 2015 are now behind us and they make up for a decent amount of time to look back and assess how the year is evolving so fa ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
MIFA BERSAUDARA UNIT OF ABM INVESTAMA STARTS OPERATING $200M COAL MINE IN ACEH
Reswara Minergi Hartama, a coal mining unit of coal miner ABM Investama known as known as Reswara, inaugurated a $200 million integrated coal minin ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
FREIGHT DERIVATIVE VOLUMES REACHED TOTALED 14,154 CONTRACTS IN APRIL - SGX
COALspot.com: “Our unique suite of freight and bulk commodity products provides market participants with a wide range of trading strategies a ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
OVERSUPPLY PUTTING INDONESIAN COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 1 ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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