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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germ ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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