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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
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