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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 11 August 15
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL REACHED A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 1,661M TONNES IN 2014 - VDKI
COALpot.com: Global production of crude steel reached a new all-time high of 1,661m tonnes in 2014, said German Coal Importer Association, in its l ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
2016 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 4Q 2015 CLOSING PRICES; BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 10 (0.20%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Monday, 10 August 15
SOUTH KOREAN UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 560,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 4,600kcal/kg NAR c ...
Sunday, 09 August 15
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS REMAINED WEAK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be buoyant with cape index pushing the BDI.
The BDI was up 10.49% and closed at 1200 points on 7 ...
Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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