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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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