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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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