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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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