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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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