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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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