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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 30 December 15
FINAL DEALS OF THE YEAR TAKING PLACE, AS SHIP OWNERS PREPARE FOR 2016 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Holidays’ investment lull has taken a grip over the newbuilding and S&P market for second hand vessels, as shipbrokers are reporting ...
Tuesday, 29 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 28 December 15
Q2' 15 U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TOTALED 7.0 MMST; DOWN 16.9% FROM Q1 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production during second quarter 2015 totaled 211.1 million short tons.
According to EIA’s preliminary quarterly ...
Monday, 28 December 15
NOVEMBER NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 11.87%; THE AVERAGE PRICE OF COAL EXPORTS ROSE 1.37%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.120 billio ...
Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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